110 Dawn Dr · Howardwick, TX 79226

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1973 0.40 ac lot $142/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming property just minutes from the lake sitting on nearly 1/2 an acre! This updated home offers a spacious layout with a large living room featuring beautiful exposed beams, a completely remodeled kitchen with tile flooring, and a remodeled oversized bathroom. Recent improvements include all new PEX plumbing, blow in insulation, new septic system, fresh exterior paint, mostly new windows, and a mini split system with 4 heads for efficient heating and cooling. The large utility room offers flexibility and could easily serve as a mud room or small third bedroom. Outside you'll find a covered back patio, screened-in porch, storm shelter, mature pecan tree, 30x30 shop, and an RV pad with r

Key facts

• New pex plumbing
• Remodeled kitchen
• New septic system

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED BATHROOM
• NEW PEX PLUMBING
• SPRAY IN INSULATION
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Exterior features: Corner lot; 0.4-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Electric water heater; Workshop on the property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,173 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarendon ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clarendon El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 215 students, 61% FRL); Clarendon J H (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 88 students, 56% FRL); Clarendon H S (math 54% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 131 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Donley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Donley County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,667 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,546
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -64.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,962
• Equity at exit: $90,117

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $51,696
• Equity at exit: $144,531

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79226

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $130,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-206	-5% $-258	+0% $-310	+5% $-363	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-393	-5% $-352	+0% $-310	+5% $-269	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-263	base $-310	+0.5pp $-358	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $185,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $199,500 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,500 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,500 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,500 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    listed $199,500 Active 795-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,305/yr (+$192/mo · 213.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$7,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814160
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,724
• Composite: 43.12/100
• National rank: #3082
• State rank: #175 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howardwick

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #20518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howardwick, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,873

Population outlook (Donley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,008 people
• By 2030: 2,777 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 2,419 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 2,224 · -26.1%
• By 2075: 2,018 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 1,949 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 6% Asian 3% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Donley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.2) · D 10.2% · R 88.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -64.1pp · 2024: -78.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.2 2020: R+75.2 2016: R+70.9 2012: R+69.2 2008: R+64.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Current HPI: 85.0932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,500 AARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.