11 Harmon Creek Dr

Riverside, TX 77320

$37,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $807/mo
• Annual: $9,678/yr
• Cap rate: 36.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.92%
• DSCR: 5.80
• 1% rule: 4.23%
• Cash to close: $10,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $37k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $37k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $256 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Texas Online Preparatory El (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 1,334 students, 63% FRL); Texas Online Preparatory Middle (math 31% / reading 58%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 1,941 students, 58% FRL); Texas Online Preparatory H S (math 23% / reading 75%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,100 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 36.5% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?