11 Harmon Creek Dr · Riverside, TX 77320

$37,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1994 8,272 sqft lot $22/sqft · 72% below area $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Riverfront with access to the Trinity River and Lake Livingston. Current structure is in poor condition. Septic is installed. Ready for RV life or fish camp life.

Key facts

• Septic installed
• Ready for rv life
• Riverfront

Tags

• RIVERFRONT
• ACCESS TO TRINITY RIVER
• ACCESS TO LAKE LIVINGSTON
• SEPTIC INSTALLED
• READY FOR RV LIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $37k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.5% vs local median 4.3% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $256 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,780 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.92%
• DSCR: 5.80
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,576
• List price: $37,000
• Delta: -71.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Creek Pt	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-4%)	4mo	$210,000	$130	85
6 Coushatta Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+2%)	13mo	$185,000	$108	61
11 Pine Knot Sq	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	11mo	$188,000	$104	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $45,329
• Equity at exit: $5,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.18×
• Total profit: $105,439
• Equity at exit: $3,199

Cash invested: $10,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $37,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $832	-5% $819	+0% $807	+5% $794	+10% $781
Rent	-10% $683	-5% $745	+0% $807	+5% $868	+10% $930
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $816	base $807	+0.5pp $797	+1.0pp $787

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,250
• Closing costs: $1,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Riverfront with access to the Trinity River and Lake Livingston. Current structure is in poor condition. Septic is installed. Ready for RV life or fish camp life.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $37,000 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Riverfront with access to the Trinity River and Lake Livingston. Current structure is in poor condition. Septic is installed. Ready for RV life or fish camp life.

3. 2026-03-15
   listed $42,000 Active 162-char remark

   Show marketing remark (162 chars)

   Riverfront with access to the Trinity River and Lake Livingston. Current structure is in poor condition. Septic is installed. Ready for RV life or fish camp life.

4. 2024-12-06
   historical
5. 2024-11-25
   price $88,000
6. 2024-11-25
   status Active
7. 2024-10-31
   status Pending
8. 2024-10-28
   status Active
9. 2024-10-04
   listed $25,000
10. 2024-10-04
    historical
11. 2018-10-12
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2018-09-04
    status Pending
13. 2018-08-26
    status Option Pending
14. 2018-07-31
    listed $169,900 Active
15. 2018-06-13
    historical
16. 2018-02-13
    status Active
17. 2018-02-12
    historical
18. 2017-10-30
    price $159,900
19. 2017-09-22
    price $167,900
20. 2017-09-12
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,073
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$1,688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$1,076
• Taxable income: $9,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,351
• After-tax cash flow: $7,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 634
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-78.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $37,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $42,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $88,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $25,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-31 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2018-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-02-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-10-30 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-22 Price Changed $167,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-12 Listed $174,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,207 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.