18476 NW 52nd Path

Country Club, FL 33055

$311,600C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,084/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,634
• Tax + insurance: −$735
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-518/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.27%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $87,248

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-518/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,578 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lake Stevens Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 251 students, 73% FRL); Lake Stevens Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 427 students, 75% FRL); Miami Carol City Senior High (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #622 of 667 statewide, top 93%, 804 students, 80% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $312k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,084/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.