21 Arvin Ln

Smithfield, KY 40068

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,418/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.63%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (51.9% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (51.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#462 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shelby County (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #77 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 237 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $275k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.