31 Amsden Hollow Rd

North Springfield, VT 05151

$129,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,321 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,387/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $106/mo
• Annual: $1,276/yr
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.