31 Amsden Hollow Rd · North Springfield, VT 05151

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,321 sqft · Other · 100 Days on market

Built 1900 0.33 ac lot $56/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older farmhouse looking for someone to bring it back to what it once was currently has 3-4 bedrooms, two baths, two kitchens, level lot, shed in the front yard area and a brook in the back yard area.

Key facts

• Level lot
• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• SHED IN THE FRONT YARD
• BROOK IN THE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 339 units permitted in Windsor County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Windsor County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.51%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,459
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -50.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $40,439
• Equity at exit: $77,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $114,958
• Equity at exit: $137,069

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05151

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,387 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,051/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,253

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $143	+0% $106	+5% $70	+10% $33
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $52	+0% $106	+5% $161	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $139	base $106	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    listed $129,900 Active 199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (199 chars)

    Older farmhouse looking for someone to bring it back to what it once was currently has 3-4 bedrooms, two baths, two kitchens, level lot, shed in the front yard area and a brook in the back yard area.

18. 2025-02-17
    price $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,051 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,051
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — North Springfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #11418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 418
• Population (ZIP): 1,691

Population outlook (Windsor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,235 people
• By 2030: 51,269 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 46,517 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 41,859 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 33,298 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 24,523 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Windsor

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.6) · D 66.3% · R 30.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: 39.7pp · 2024: 35.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.6 2020: D+38.9 2016: D+32.1 2012: D+38.1 2008: D+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 335.9934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $129,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $129,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,051 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.