15972 Highway 21 E

Grapeland, TX 75844

$120,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $83/mo
• Annual: $991/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($991/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#427 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kennard ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #670 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.3% in Grapeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.