15972 Highway 21 E · Grapeland, TX 75844

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in a peaceful, wooded setting just 3.8 miles from Mission Tejas State Park! This 2,016 sq ft, two-story home built in 1992 sits on 1 acre and offers strong potential for renovation, resale, or rental income. Featuring a spacious layout, large living areas, and a covered porch perfect for enjoying the natural surroundings, this property is ready for your vision. Interior needs updates, making it an ideal value-add project. Additional structures on-site provide great storage or workshop potential. Whether you're looking for your next flip, investment property, or weekend retreat, this one is full of opportunity. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Wooded setting
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• WOODED SETTING
• COVERED PORCH
• ADDITIONAL STRUCTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($991/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.3% in Grapeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#427 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kennard ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #670 of 1,141 in TX (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.95%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $24,733
• Equity at exit: $59,267

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $74,756
• Equity at exit: $95,701

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75844

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,972/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $117	+0% $83	+5% $49	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $36	+0% $83	+5% $129	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $113	base $83	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $120,000 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Investor opportunity in a peaceful, wooded setting just 3.8 miles from Mission Tejas State Park! This 2,016 sq ft, two-story home built in 1992 sits on 1 acre and offers strong potential for renovation, resale, or rental income. Featuring a spacious layout, large living areas, and a covered porch perfect for enjoying the natural surroundings, this property is ready for your vision. Interior needs updates, making it an ideal value-add project. Additional structures on-site provide great storage or workshop potential. Whether you're looking for your next flip, investment property, or weekend retreat, this one is full of opportunity. Being sold as-is.

19. 2014-10-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,972 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,972
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kennard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,315
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #8840
• State rank: #670 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Grapeland

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #8834

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,004

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Current HPI: 174.906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $120,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2014-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,972 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.