236 Mescalero Dr

Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$419,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$106
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,477/yr
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $117,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $382k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $565 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.