236 Mescalero Dr · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$419,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Other public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1999 0.90 ac lot $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SUPER CRYSTAL LAKES CABIN, LOOKS LIKE NEW, Adjoins open space park next to Panhandle Creek, Walk to nearby National Forest Trails and Stocked Trout Fishing ponds, In New Condition, This home has 4 bedrooms plus a sleeping loft for plenty of space for all your family and friends, Open large kitchen design - walk out lower level to yard area with fire pit in clearing, Storage Shed, Almost an acre of land covered with lots of pine and fir trees, Looping driveway, Served by Cistern and septic vault, Power to be extended by Seller, Ready for you to move on in and enjoy the Colorado mountain lifestyle

Key facts

• National forest
• Plumbing updates
• New flooring

Tags

• COMMUNITY TRAIL
• NATIONAL FOREST
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• PLUMBING UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area and below-grade finished area provided (informational)
• HOA & community: HOA present; annual fee of $799 covering common amenities; Second association (Crystal Lakes Water & Sewer) with annual fee of $475; Association transfer fees apply; Community amenities include clubhouse, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; RV access/parking available
• Utilities: Cistern water source (meter installed); No water rights; Septic vault; Electricity available; Propane for gas/utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One-and-one-half story; Residential property, previously owned
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Full basement, partially finished with walk-out access and retrofitted for radon
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure on property; Recreation association required; Wooded lot with evergreen trees; Level lot that abuts private open space; Dirt road frontage on a private road up to county standards; Minimal flood or C-rated flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Space heater; Two or more heat sources; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Loft; Window coverings; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer info not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $565 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,665 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,744
• Equity at exit: $110,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $62,543
• Equity at exit: $123,758

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,242/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $419,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $419,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $435,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $435,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $435,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $435,000 Active
16. 2022-11-01
    soldstatus $410,000
17. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $410,000 Sold 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    SUPER CRYSTAL LAKES CABIN, LOOKS LIKE NEW, Adjoins open space park next to Panhandle Creek, Walk to nearby National Forest Trails and Stocked Trout Fishing ponds, In New Condition, This home has 4 bedrooms plus a sleeping loft for plenty of space for all your family and friends, Open large kitchen design - walk out lower level to yard area with fire pit in clearing, Storage Shed, Almost an acre of land covered with lots of pine and fir trees, Looping driveway, Served by Cistern and septic vault, Power to be extended by Seller, Ready for you to move on in and enjoy the Colorado mountain lifestyle

18. 2022-08-20
    historical Active - Backup 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    SUPER CRYSTAL LAKES CABIN, LOOKS LIKE NEW, Adjoins open space park next to Panhandle Creek, Walk to nearby National Forest Trails and Stocked Trout Fishing ponds, In New Condition, This home has 4 bedrooms plus a sleeping loft for plenty of space for all your family and friends, Open large kitchen design - walk out lower level to yard area with fire pit in clearing, Storage Shed, Almost an acre of land covered with lots of pine and fir trees, Looping driveway, Served by Cistern and septic vault, Power to be extended by Seller, Ready for you to move on in and enjoy the Colorado mountain lifestyle

19. 2022-07-28
    listed $389,900 Active 602-char remark

    Show marketing remark (602 chars)

    SUPER CRYSTAL LAKES CABIN, LOOKS LIKE NEW, Adjoins open space park next to Panhandle Creek, Walk to nearby National Forest Trails and Stocked Trout Fishing ponds, In New Condition, This home has 4 bedrooms plus a sleeping loft for plenty of space for all your family and friends, Open large kitchen design - walk out lower level to yard area with fire pit in clearing, Storage Shed, Almost an acre of land covered with lots of pine and fir trees, Looping driveway, Served by Cistern and septic vault, Power to be extended by Seller, Ready for you to move on in and enjoy the Colorado mountain lifestyle

20. 1997-06-01
    soldstatus $11,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,309 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥80°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$2,242
• − Insurance: −$2,766
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,664
• − Management: −$3,664
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$3,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$851
• After-tax cash flow: $4,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+3617.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $435,000 IRES
• 2022-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $410,000 IRES
• 2022-08-20 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-07-28 Listed $389,900 IRES
• 1997-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,242 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.