12517 Timber Creek Dr #2

Carmel, IN 46032

$265,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Built 2025 · Condo · Pending · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$256
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-460/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-460/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carmel Middle School (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #32 of 330 statewide, top 10%, 1,064 students, 20% FRL); Carmel High School (math 77% / reading 90%, grade A, #3 of 369 statewide, top 1%, 5,192 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $265k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?