12517 Timber Creek Dr #2 · Carmel, IN 46032

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · Condo public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2025 $248/sqft · 8% above area Est $245k · 8% over $256/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your picky buyers - everything is brand spanking new and under warranty! The pictures do speak for themselves but you can't have NEW smell over electronic screen :-) Please schedule a showing to see for yourself! This location in Carmel that is so perfect that you can walk to Palladium for concerts and Farmers market for groceries. Both bedrooms have pond view as well as your terrace. There are great amenities in this community - pool (outside to swim) and sauna as well as work/out lift area, POOL to play pool and club house for the parties. This unit have a storage area(inside the building) and one car garage with one designated parking space. There is guest parking also.

Key facts

• Pond view
• Community pool
• Sauna

Tags

• POND VIEW
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SAUNA
• WORKOUT AREA
• CLUB HOUSE
• STORAGE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carmel Middle School (math 46% / reading 61%, grade C+, #32 of 330 statewide, top 10%, 1,064 students, 20% FRL); Carmel High School (math 77% / reading 90%, grade A, #3 of 369 statewide, top 1%, 5,192 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $265k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $232,084 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,028
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-36,934
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,898
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46032

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,387/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$256
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $258,240

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $37	+0% $-38	+5% $-113	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-130	+0% $-38	+5% $53	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $29	base $-38	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1059 Timber Creek Dr Carmel, IN	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,850	$1.34	45d	1	0.04mi
12484 Breaklines St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,059	$1.97	0d	17	0.11mi
675 Beacon St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1322	$3,295	$2.49	0d	18	0.20mi
358 Dartmouth St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,095	$1.76	5d	1	0.25mi
301 American Way N Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1167	$2,980	$2.55	0d	1	0.39mi
881 3rd Ave SW Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1135	$1,999	$1.76	0d	2	0.44mi
880 Monon Green Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$3,235	$3.10	45d	5	0.52mi
400 Industrial Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1175	$3,570	$3.04	0d	58	0.53mi
947 Wickham Ct #206 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	5d	1	0.55mi
750 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1144	$4,282	$3.74	0d	1	0.56mi
300 Providence Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	990	$2,049	$2.07	0d	35	0.57mi
591 Monon Blvd Carmel, IN	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$2,951	$3.73	0d	23	0.60mi
720 S Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$3,345	$3.07	0d	1	0.63mi
833 W Main St Apt 301 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,640	$1.81	0d	1	0.63mi
833 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1304	$3,485	$2.67	9d	23	0.63mi
530 W Main St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,412	$1.61	0d	1	0.71mi
1225 Veterans Way Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,478	$2.68	0d	11	0.75mi
1111 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$3,224	$3.46	0d	8	0.76mi
760 Walkabout Cir E Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	569	$2,233	$3.92	0d	23	0.78mi
25 Florence St Carmel, IN	2.0	2.5	1338	$2,249	$1.68	12d	1	0.82mi
12415 N Pennsylvania St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,824	$1.94	0d	19	0.85mi
110 W Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,486	$2.58	0d	13	0.85mi
231 Lark Dr #3 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	3d	1	0.90mi
231 Lark Dr #3 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,195	$1.29	0d	1	0.90mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit T-209 Carmel, IN	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,026	$1.58	0d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-08 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	0d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-06 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,499	$1.71	0d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 221-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	1.5	876	$1,499	$1.71	22d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit 220-03 Carmel, IN	2.0	2.0	876	$1,449	$1.65	0d	1	0.97mi
110 Bryn Mawr Ln Unit T-203 Carmel, IN	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,199	$1.72	9d	1	0.97mi
221 E Main St Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,099	$2.08	0d	8	1.00mi
1685 E 116th St Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,475	$2.77	0d	26	1.08mi
1825 Jefferson Dr W Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1350	$2,575	$1.91	0d	23	1.19mi
11405 Central Dr W Carmel, IN	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,600	$1.85	0d	1	1.20mi
13415 Highpointe Blvd Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,641	$2.07	0d	14	1.24mi
741 N Rangeline Rd Carmel, IN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,275	$1.50	0d	1	1.27mi
945 Mohawk Hills Dr Carmel, IN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1210	$1,937	$1.60	0d	34	1.34mi
525 End DR Carmel, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,380	$2.49	0d	14	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $256 · $3,072/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Bring your picky buyers - everything is brand spanking new and under warranty! The pictures do speak for themselves but you can't have NEW smell over electronic screen :-) Please schedule a showing to see for yourself! This location in Carmel that is so perfect that you can walk to Palladium for concerts and Farmers market for groceries. Both bedrooms have pond view as well as your terrace. There are great amenities in this community - pool (outside to swim) and sauna as well as work/out lift area, POOL to play pool and club house for the parties. This unit have a storage area(inside the building) and one car garage with one designated parking space. There is guest parking also.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $265,000 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Bring your picky buyers - everything is brand spanking new and under warranty! The pictures do speak for themselves but you can't have NEW smell over electronic screen :-) Please schedule a showing to see for yourself! This location in Carmel that is so perfect that you can walk to Palladium for concerts and Farmers market for groceries. Both bedrooms have pond view as well as your terrace. There are great amenities in this community - pool (outside to swim) and sauna as well as work/out lift area, POOL to play pool and club house for the parties. This unit have a storage area(inside the building) and one car garage with one designated parking space. There is guest parking also.

3. 2026-02-16
   price $275,000 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Bring your picky buyers - everything is brand spanking new and under warranty! The pictures do speak for themselves but you can't have NEW smell over electronic screen :-) Please schedule a showing to see for yourself! This location in Carmel that is so perfect that you can walk to Palladium for concerts and Farmers market for groceries. Both bedrooms have pond view as well as your terrace. There are great amenities in this community - pool (outside to swim) and sauna as well as work/out lift area, POOL to play pool and club house for the parties. This unit have a storage area(inside the building) and one car garage with one designated parking space. There is guest parking also.

4. 2026-01-07
   listed $288,000 Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Bring your picky buyers - everything is brand spanking new and under warranty! The pictures do speak for themselves but you can't have NEW smell over electronic screen :-) Please schedule a showing to see for yourself! This location in Carmel that is so perfect that you can walk to Palladium for concerts and Farmers market for groceries. Both bedrooms have pond view as well as your terrace. There are great amenities in this community - pool (outside to swim) and sauna as well as work/out lift area, POOL to play pool and club house for the parties. This unit have a storage area(inside the building) and one car garage with one designated parking space. There is guest parking also.

5. 2025-12-27
   historical
6. 2025-10-09
   price $275,000
7. 2025-09-15
   listed $282,000 Active
8. 2000-12-15
   soldstatus $80,000
9. 2000-10-17
   listed $82,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,387 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,387
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − HOA: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,186
• After-tax cash flow: $727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Clay Schools
• NCES district ID: 1801200
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $102,347
• Composite: 63.54/100
• National rank: #608
• State rank: #1 of 301 in IN

Livability — Carmel

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmel, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 99,910
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 51,515
• Household income: $132,085
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1216.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Asian 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.06%
• Current HPI: 221.9087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+219.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $265,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $275,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $288,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $275,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $282,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-15 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-17 Listed $82,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,387 · +125.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.