454 S Massey St

Watertown, NY 13601

$374,900A-

25 bd · None ba · 4,215 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,537/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$340
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,163
• Net cashflow: $2,068/mo
• Annual: $24,819/yr
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive. Per door: $414/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $375k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $250k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 6.0% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?