454 S Massey St

Watertown, NY 13601

$374,900B

25 bd · None ba · 4,215 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax + insurance: −$340
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,209
• Net cashflow: $2,244/mo
• Annual: $26,924/yr
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.65%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $104,972

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive. Per door: $449/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $375k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $250k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,759/mo this rent would consume 118% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1634% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.