3026 Robinson Rd

Missouri City, TX 77459

$269,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,874 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,541/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$728
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-174/mo
• Annual: $-2,083/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (5.5% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $238k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quail Valley El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 564 students, 64% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 35% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.