8313 Emerald Ln

Manchester, VA 23236

$305,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-263/mo
• Annual: $-3,160/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (30.7% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $305k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.