8313 Emerald Ln · Manchester, VA 23236

$305,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1963 0.26 ac lot $235/sqft · 10% below area Est $338k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM! Unpack and move in today! Discover this charming home tucked in one of Chesterfield's most sought-after school districts. Located in the peaceful and established Penn Acres neighborhood, this property blends comfort, convenience and a NEWER ROOF (2020). Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout the home (23). NEW BATHROOM shower enclosure, toilet and flooring (26). NEW Vapor barrier and crawlspace door (26). Highlights: Attached garage for secure parking & extra storage Updated kitchen with timeless finishes, crown molding and custom cabinetry. Spacious bedrooms filled with natural light Large backyard ideal for family gatherings or quiet evenings Minutes to major highways, shopping, parks, and dining Although no known defects, all flue, chimney, sheds and outbuildings sold as-is. Although no known defects property is sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $305k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,311 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,500
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: -9.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8307 Emerald Ln	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+2%)	2mo	$335,000	$254	95
8307 Trout Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+4%)	7mo	$310,000	$230	85
8660 Woodward Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+8%)	3mo	$372,000	$265	66
510 Jade Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+11%)	4mo	$319,950	$221	64
540 Hartford Ln	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,446 (+11%)	3mo	$325,000	$225	62
8603 Eastwood Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+3%)	2mo	$433,000	$323	60
8571 Shannon Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+11%)	5mo	$325,800	$225	57
8431 Scottingham Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+2%)	9mo	$350,000	$263	55
515 Ruthers Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,233 (-5%)	4mo	$245,000	$199	54
8751 Hartford Ct	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,448 (+11%)	9mo	$350,000	$242	49
8330 Scottingham Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-12%)	6mo	$290,000	$252	47
827 Ruthers Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (+11%)	7mo	$298,900	$208	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-64,601
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,193
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $258,476

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-177	+0% $-263	+5% $-350	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-347	+0% $-263	+5% $-180	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-186	base $-263	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Newstead Dr North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.25mi
8501 Woodward Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.32mi
542 Gateway Centre Pkwy North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,904	$1.97	15d	67	0.48mi
800 Fahey Ct North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	2.0	1410	$2,195	$1.56	44d	1	0.57mi
211 Lingstorm Ln Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,960	$2.40	2d	123	0.95mi
9111 N Arch Village Ct North Chesterfield, VA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1041	$1,700	$1.63	22d	1	1.06mi
9111 N Arch Village Ct North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	2d	2	1.06mi
7854 Whitworth Rd North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	1354	$2,400	$1.77	3d	1	1.21mi
101 Springline Dr North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,825	$2.88	2d	49	1.24mi
725 Boulder Springs Dr North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$2,050	$1.77	2d	26	1.25mi
311 Karl Linn Dr North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1271	$3,416	$2.69	2d	21	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Active 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM! Unpack and move in today! Discover this charming home tucked in one of Chesterfield's most sought-after school districts. Located in the peaceful and established Penn Acres neighborhood, this property blends comfort, convenience and a NEWER ROOF (2020). Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout the home (23). NEW BATHROOM shower enclosure, toilet and flooring (26). NEW Vapor barrier and crawlspace door (26). Highlights: Attached garage for secure parking & extra storage Updated kitchen with timeless finishes, crown molding and custom cabinetry. Spacious bedrooms filled with natural light Large backyard ideal for family gatherings or quiet evenings Minutes to major highways, shopping, parks, and dining Although no known defects, all flue, chimney, sheds and outbuildings sold as-is. Although no known defects property is sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs.

2. 2026-02-26
   status Pending 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM! Unpack and move in today! Discover this charming home tucked in one of Chesterfield's most sought-after school districts. Located in the peaceful and established Penn Acres neighborhood, this property blends comfort, convenience and a NEWER ROOF (2020). Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout the home (23). NEW BATHROOM shower enclosure, toilet and flooring (26). NEW Vapor barrier and crawlspace door (26). Highlights: Attached garage for secure parking & extra storage Updated kitchen with timeless finishes, crown molding and custom cabinetry. Spacious bedrooms filled with natural light Large backyard ideal for family gatherings or quiet evenings Minutes to major highways, shopping, parks, and dining Although no known defects, all flue, chimney, sheds and outbuildings sold as-is. Although no known defects property is sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs.

3. 2025-11-03
   listed $305,000 Active 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM! Unpack and move in today! Discover this charming home tucked in one of Chesterfield's most sought-after school districts. Located in the peaceful and established Penn Acres neighborhood, this property blends comfort, convenience and a NEWER ROOF (2020). Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout the home (23). NEW BATHROOM shower enclosure, toilet and flooring (26). NEW Vapor barrier and crawlspace door (26). Highlights: Attached garage for secure parking & extra storage Updated kitchen with timeless finishes, crown molding and custom cabinetry. Spacious bedrooms filled with natural light Large backyard ideal for family gatherings or quiet evenings Minutes to major highways, shopping, parks, and dining Although no known defects, all flue, chimney, sheds and outbuildings sold as-is. Although no known defects property is sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs.

4. 2025-10-30
   historical $305,000 909-char remark

   Show marketing remark (909 chars)

   NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM! Unpack and move in today! Discover this charming home tucked in one of Chesterfield's most sought-after school districts. Located in the peaceful and established Penn Acres neighborhood, this property blends comfort, convenience and a NEWER ROOF (2020). Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring throughout the home (23). NEW BATHROOM shower enclosure, toilet and flooring (26). NEW Vapor barrier and crawlspace door (26). Highlights: Attached garage for secure parking & extra storage Updated kitchen with timeless finishes, crown molding and custom cabinetry. Spacious bedrooms filled with natural light Large backyard ideal for family gatherings or quiet evenings Minutes to major highways, shopping, parks, and dining Although no known defects, all flue, chimney, sheds and outbuildings sold as-is. Although no known defects property is sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs.

5. 2023-09-14
   status Active
6. 2023-09-02
   status Pending
7. 2023-08-19
   listed $315,000 Active
8. 2022-05-26
   price $1,595
9. 2011-12-27
   soldstatus $110,000
10. 2011-11-16
    historical
11. 2011-09-19
    listed $117,500
12. 2002-05-08
    soldstatus $87,500
13. 2002-02-14
    listed $84,000
14. 2002-02-14
    listed $84,000
15. 1996-06-11
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,474 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,501 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$8,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3202

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+306.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $305,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Coming Soon $305,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-09-14 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2023-09-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-08-19 Listed $315,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-05-26 Price Changed $1,595 RENT.
• 2011-12-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CVRMLS
• 2011-11-16 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-09-19 Listed $117,500 CVRMLS
• 2002-05-08 Sold (MLS) $87,500 CVRMLS
• 2002-02-14 Listed $84,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-02-14 Listed $84,000 CVRMLS
• 1996-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,474 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.