21419 Hawthorn Harvest Cir

Houston, TX 77449

$300,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,309 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 206 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$766
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-314/mo
• Annual: $-3,762/yr
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemmenway El (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,151 students, 82% FRL); Thornton Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,397 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?