21419 Hawthorn Harvest Cir · Houston, TX 77449

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $130/sqft · 9% below area Est $330k · 9% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home with an upstairs game room in the desired Lantana community. The open-concept main floor features a bright living and dining area with elegant tile flooring and plenty of natural light. The kitchen offers crisp white cabinetry, granite countertops, a peninsula with breakfast bar seating, and a spacious pantry. The first-floor primary suite is a relaxing retreat with a walk-in shower and closet. Upstairs is a versatile game room, three secondary bedrooms, and a full bath, giving everyone the space they need. Enjoy a peaceful backyard with no back neighbors, a covered patio, and room to entertain or unwind. Community amenities include a splash pad,

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Covered patio
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemmenway El (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,151 students, 82% FRL); Thornton Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,397 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,618 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,008
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21626 Sage Landing Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,250 (-3%)	7mo	$310,000	$138	80
6435 Purple Wreath Way	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,115 (-8%)	5mo	$293,000	$139	70
21623 Calico Bush Trl	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,168 (-6%)	17mo	$320,000	$148	67
21415 Holly Heights Rd	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,090 (-10%)	10mo	$315,000	$151	67
6318 Verbena Blossom Trl	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,097 (-9%)	9mo	$309,000	$147	65
6807 Blue Stem Hill Cir	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,015 (-13%)	11mo	$315,000	$156	61
6319 Founding Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,202 (-5%)	6mo	$330,000	$150	60
6131 Purple Iris St	0.60mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,326 (+1%)	7mo	$315,000	$135	60
7303 Cypress Pin Oak Dr	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,412 (+4%)	5mo	$320,000	$133	51
21323 Cypress Live Oak	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,069 (-10%)	6mo	$320,000	$155	43
21111 Diamond Rock Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,048 (-11%)	11mo	$289,000	$141	42
7330 Cypress Shumard Oak Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,028 (-12%)	18mo	$355,000	$175	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,646
• Equity at exit: $68,536

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-80,421
• Equity at exit: $68,711

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$641 /mo · $7,695/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,015

Max offer price $244,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-144	-5% $-229	+0% $-314	+5% $-398	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-417	+0% $-314	+5% $-210	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-237	base $-314	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21415 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2514	$3,000	$1.19	45d	1	0.25mi
21454 Bluebonnet Cove Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2320	$2,600	$1.12	45d	1	0.31mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	0.61mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$3,258	$1.83	1d	41	0.86mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	45d	1	0.88mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	23d	1	0.92mi
21331 Hartford Hollow Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,500	$0.82	21d	1	0.96mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	45d	1	0.97mi
21038 Bay Village Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1904	$2,491	$1.31	45d	1	1.01mi
7546 Coral Terrace Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2050	$2,699	$1.32	45d	1	1.03mi
21034 Shore Oak Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	2110	$2,950	$1.40	45d	1	1.05mi
6642 High Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$1,999	$0.96	45d	1	1.06mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	45d	1	1.10mi
21114 Montego Bay Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	2124	$2,499	$1.18	45d	1	1.12mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	1d	58	1.19mi
21031 Sandestin Ridge Dr Cypress, TX	5.0	3.5	2099	$2,861	$1.36	45d	1	1.20mi
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	45d	1	1.25mi
21522 Violet Ridge Rd Katy, TX	3.0	4.0	1597	$2,200	$1.38	45d	1	1.30mi
21047 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,953	$1.20	45d	1	1.32mi
21046 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$3,045	$1.22	45d	1	1.34mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	45d	1	1.36mi
6610 Gorton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2481	$750	$0.30	4d	1	1.37mi
21010 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,768	$1.28	45d	1	1.39mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,622	$1.35	14d	21	1.39mi
21034 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	3.0	2461	$2,861	$1.16	45d	1	1.42mi
21014 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,953	$1.19	45d	1	1.44mi
20730 Dickinson Manor Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2710	$2,350	$0.87	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 193 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 185 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    historical
17. 2026-04-24
    status Active
18. 2026-04-24
    price $310,000
19. 2026-04-20
    historical
20. 2025-11-20
    listed $320,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,695 · $641/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,695 · $641/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$7,695
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,513
• − Management: −$2,513
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully maintained single-family home in the Lantana community is in good condition with minimal updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $320,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,695 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.