149 Jeff Murphy Ln

Magnolia, NC 28453

$125,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,828 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,246/yr
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#628 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rose Hill-Magnolia Elementary (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,269 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 1,147 students, 100% FRL); Wallace-Rose Hill High (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #427 of 535 statewide, top 81%, 807 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $125k implies a 1289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.