149 Jeff Murphy Ln · Magnolia, NC 28453

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,828 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1993 1.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Duplin County this 1.95 acre lot and manufactured home has plenty of space for a small garden

Key facts

• 1.95 acre lot
• 1.95 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• 1.95 ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Cardinal Homes Realty
• Financial info: Information not provided
• HOA & community: Not in subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); 1 total parking space
• Security: Information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; See remarks for additional construction details; Combination foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; No fencing; Metal roof; Private road frontage; Approximately 1.95 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Information not provided
• Bedrooms: Information not provided
• Flooring: Information not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling; Other heating type; Other cooling type
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#628 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rose Hill-Magnolia Elementary (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,269 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 1,147 students, 100% FRL); Wallace-Rose Hill High (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #427 of 535 statewide, top 81%, 807 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $125k implies a 1289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $36,468
• Equity at exit: $66,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $102,100
• Equity at exit: $110,868

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28453

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,036

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $223	+0% $187	+5% $152	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $137	+0% $187	+5% $237	+10% $288
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $219	base $187	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $125,000
3. 2026-04-13
   price $145,000
4. 2026-03-16
   price $150,000
5. 2026-02-14
   price $155,000
6. 2026-01-16
   price $160,000
7. 2025-11-25
   listed $200,000 Active
8. 2011-05-13
   soldstatus $9,000
9. 2011-05-13
   soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $237
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duplin County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,900
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8052
• State rank: #153 of 178 in NC

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #22864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,065

Population outlook (Duplin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,701 people
• By 2030: 56,333 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 52,736 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 36,339 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,866 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 33% Black 29% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Duplin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.2% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+22.1 2016: R+19.2 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Current HPI: 187.9046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1288.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $125,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $145,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $155,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $160,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $200,000 Hive MLS
• 2011-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records
• 2011-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.