38 Henry Wescott Rd

Warrensburg, NY 12885

$445,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,454/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$668
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-1,853/mo
• Annual: $-22,232/yr
• Cap rate: 1.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.84%
• DSCR: 0.21
• 1% rule: 0.33%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (73.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (67.3% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (73.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#823 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warrensburg Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #552 of 755 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $445k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.6% in Warrensburg — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 74% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.