12175 Water Ash Pl

Riverview, FL 33569

$339,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,328 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 347 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,752/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$805
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-433/mo
• Annual: $-5,193/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 347 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sessums Elementary School (math 47% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 942 students, 48% FRL); Rodgers Middle Magnet School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,128 students, 48% FRL); Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 347 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
• Minor: Bathroom vanity — Slight wear