12175 Water Ash Pl · Riverview, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +7.7/30.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- 1% rule +3.3/10.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- DSCR +1.8/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$329,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Short Sale. This DR Horton "Elston" two-story floorplan built in 2021 is all block construction, and was designed with modern living in mind. The heart of the home is the spacious kitchen with granite counters and its island that seamlessly connects to the living and dining areas. The open layout with gray tile flooring throughout, neutral paint, light and bright feeling make this home perfect for entertaining or quality time relaxing. Upstairs, a generous loft offers flexible space for a home office, playroom, or second living area. The oversized owner’s suite boasts a large walk-in closet with natural light and an en-suite bath with double sinks and walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms share a full bath with dual sinks and tub/shower combo, conveniently located near the upstairs laundry. The Ridgewood community also includes a community pool and playground for some fun in the sun, come make it your own today!
Key facts
- Community pool
- Spacious kitchen
- Open layout
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (20.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (16.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $263k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in Riverview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
- Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Sessums Elementary School (math 47% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 942 students, 48% FRL); Rodgers Middle Magnet School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 1,128 students, 48% FRL); Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.83% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.91%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.95%
- DSCR
- 0.78
- GRM
- 10.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $413,513
- List price
- $329,900
- Delta
- -20.22%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12204 Blue Pacific Dr | 0.22mi | 4/3.0 | 2,400 (+3%) | 2mo | $519,999 | $217 | 83 |
| 12259 Blue Pacific Dr | 0.24mi | 4/2.5 | 2,446 (+5%) | 4mo | $420,000 | $172 | 76 |
| 12215 Blue Pacific Dr | 0.19mi | 4/2.5 | 2,205 (-5%) | 11mo | $410,000 | $186 | 71 |
| 11626 Lake Lucaya Dr | 0.33mi | 4/3.0 | 2,583 (+11%) | 2mo | $444,990 | $172 | 65 |
| 11617 Palmetto Pine St | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,094 (-10%) | 2mo | $269,100 | $129 | 54 |
| 11967 Stone Pine St | 0.45mi | 4/2.0 | 2,005 (-14%) | 0mo | $375,000 | $187 | 52 |
| 11767 Winterset Cove Dr | 0.63mi | 4/3.0 | 2,056 (-12%) | 6mo | $379,900 | $185 | 46 |
| 11820 Stone Pine St | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,990 (-14%) | 2mo | $379,000 | $190 | 43 |
| 11831 Winterset Cove Dr | 0.73mi | 5/2.5 (+1) | 2,595 (+12%) | 1mo | $385,000 | $148 | 39 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -25.9%
- Equity multiple
- 0.13×
- Total profit
- $-80,248
- Equity at exit
- $49,189
- IRR
- -26.3%
- Equity multiple
- -0.20×
- Total profit
- $-111,278
- Equity at exit
- $28,524
Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 57 active · 48 under contract
- Months of supply
- 14.9 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $395,000 ($175/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 97 d
- This list price
- 5% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +1.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33569
- Home prices YoY
- -16.7%
- Rents YoY
- 2.0%
- Active inventory
- 376
- Price-to-rent
- 10.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,745 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,730
- Tax from tax record
- −$663 /mo · $7,960/yr
- Insurance
- −$137
- HOA
- −$19
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$577
- Net cashflow
- $-381
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-194 | -5% $-288 | +0% $-381 | +5% $-474 | +10% $-568 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-598 | -5% $-489 | +0% $-381 | +5% $-272 | +10% $-164 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-215 | -0.5pp $-297 | base $-381 | +0.5pp $-466 | +1.0pp $-553 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $82,475
- Closing costs
- $9,897
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12153 White Cypress Pl Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 158d | 1 | 0.03mi |
| 12131 White Cypress Pl Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,700 | $1.16 | 72d | 1 | 0.04mi |
| 12106 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 7d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 12072 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 165d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 12072 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 10d | 1 | 0.06mi |
| 12153 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2522 | $2,550 | $1.01 | 10d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 11402 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 10d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 12181 Downy Birch Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2328 | $2,500 | $1.07 | 165d | 1 | 0.08mi |
| 11760 White Willow Ln Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2260 | $2,665 | $1.18 | 10d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 11454 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2522 | $2,900 | $1.15 | 142d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 12221 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2197 | $2,336 | $1.06 | 69d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 11622 Fringetree Ct Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1936 | $1,195 | $0.62 | 110d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 12250 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2022 | $2,850 | $1.41 | 140d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 11610 Fringetree Ct Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1972 | $1,350 | $0.68 | 118d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 11720 Conifer Cone Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1710 | $2,450 | $1.43 | 25d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 12258 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3008 | $2,800 | $0.93 | 143d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 12258 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3008 | $2,800 | $0.93 | 133d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 11759 Pink Plumeria Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1710 | $2,700 | $1.58 | 10d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 11617 Gold Dust Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2467 | $2,746 | $1.11 | 51d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 12111 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2005 | $2,400 | $1.20 | 110d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 11771 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1997 | $2,495 | $1.25 | 75d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 11759 Sabal Scrub Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2036 | $2,750 | $1.35 | 55d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 11608 Cleyera Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2500 | $2,850 | $1.14 | 145d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 11943 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1990 | $2,400 | $1.21 | 145d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 11943 Stone Pine St Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1990 | $2,400 | $1.21 | 140d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 12314 Marshland St Riverview, FL | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2293 | $2,700 | $1.18 | 10d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 12311 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2575 | $2,600 | $1.01 | 155d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 12311 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2575 | $2,600 | $1.01 | 165d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 12371 Terrace Bluff St Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1996 | $3,700 | $1.85 | 28d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 11411 Chilly Water Ct Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2555 | $3,000 | $1.17 | 75d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 12337 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1910 | $2,200 | $1.15 | 140d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 12337 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1910 | $2,200 | $1.15 | 145d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 12353 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1818 | $2,300 | $1.27 | 55d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 12353 Blue Pacific Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1818 | $2,450 | $1.35 | 49d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 12404 Ballentrae Forest Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2500 | $2,600 | $1.04 | 75d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 11506 McMullen Rd Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1670 | $1,700 | $1.02 | 124d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 11412 Freshwater Ridge Dr Riverview, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1732 | $2,400 | $1.39 | 10d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 11861 Thicket Wood Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2428 | $2,720 | $1.12 | 75d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 11420 Freshwater Ridge Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2057 | $2,900 | $1.41 | 5d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 12236 Fairlawn Dr Riverview, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2486 | $2,950 | $1.19 | 10d | 1 | 0.64mi |
HOA detail $19/mo · $228/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $329,900 Active 390 DOM
-
2026-11-07days on market $329,900 Active 389 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $329,900 Active 388 DOM
-
2026-11-05days on market $329,900 Active 387 DOM
-
2026-11-04days on market $329,900 Active 386 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $329,900 Active 384 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $329,900 Active 383 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $329,900 Active 382 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $329,900 Active 381 DOM
-
2026-10-29days on market $329,900 Active 380 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $329,900 Active 379 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $329,900 Active 378 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $329,900 Active 377 DOM
-
2026-10-25days on market $329,900 Active 376 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $329,900 Active 375 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $329,900 Active 374 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $329,900 Active 373 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $329,900 Active 372 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $329,900 Active 371 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $329,900 Active 370 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $329,900 Active 369 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $329,900 Active 368 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $329,900 Active 367 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $329,900 Active 366 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $329,900 Active 365 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $329,900 Active 364 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $329,900 Active 363 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $329,900 Active 362 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $329,900 Active 361 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $329,900 Active 360 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $329,900 Active 359 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $329,900 Active 358 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $329,900 Active 357 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $329,900 Active 356 DOM
-
2026-10-03days on market $329,900 Active 354 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $329,900 Active 353 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $329,900 Active 352 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $329,900 Active 351 DOM
-
2026-09-29price $329,900 Active 350 DOM
-
2026-09-27days on market $339,900 Active 350 DOM
-
2026-09-25days on market $339,900 Active 348 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $339,900 Active 347 DOM
-
2026-09-23days on market $339,900 Active 346 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $339,900 Active 345 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $339,900 Active 344 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $339,900 Active 343 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $339,900 Active 342 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $339,900 Active 341 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $339,900 Active 340 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $339,900 Active 339 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $7,960 · $663/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $7,960 · $663/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,946
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,480
- − Property taxes
- −$7,960
- − Insurance
- −$1,650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,636
- − Management
- −$2,636
- − HOA
- −$228
- − Depreciation
- −$9,597
- Taxable loss
- −$10,240
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,458
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,114/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This 2021 DR Horton 'Elston' two-story home is in good condition with minor repairs needed. It offers a spacious kitchen and bathrooms, and is located in a well-maintained neighborhood.
Repairs flagged
- Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear
- Minor Bathroom vanity — Slight wear
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
- Resale Replace bathroom vanity — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hillsborough
- NCES district ID
- 1200870
- Math proficiency
- 47% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $50,622
- Composite
- 41.6/100
- National rank
- #3435
- State rank
- #41 of 73 in FL
Livability — Riverview
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #134
- US rank
- #2000
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Riverview, FL
- County
- Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
- City population
- 137,988
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 27,867
- Household income
- $105,275
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 15% of renters
Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,607,022 people
- By 2030
- 1,733,968 · +7.9%
- By 2040
- 1,979,565 · +23.2%
- By 2050
- 2,203,427 · +37.1%
- By 2075
- 2,667,893 · +66.0%
- By 2100
- 2,891,558 · +79.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 5% Dominican 3%
- Languages at home
- 78% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -59.47%
- Current HPI
- 296.9169
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.00%
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+12.6% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-17 Price Changed $349,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-18 Price Changed $354,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-01-16 Price Changed $359,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-12 Price Changed $369,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-09-27 Listed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-12-09 Sold (MLS) $310,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $840,800 Public Records
- 2021-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-03-01 Listed $310,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+28.2%/yrLatest (2025): $7,960 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…