15433 W Telegraph Rd Unit 36W

Santa Paula, CA 93060

$279,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $564/mo
• Annual: $6,762/yr
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#331 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-, commute B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $280k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.9% in Santa Paula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,162/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1317% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Severe weathering and wear
• Major: roof — Aged appearance
• Major: flooring — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major: interior walls/paint — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major: windows — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Likely outdated and in poor condition