15433 W Telegraph Rd Unit 36W · Santa Paula, CA 93060

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1969 Poor condition 1,600 sqft lot Est $455k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

Key facts

• 1,600 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1969

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Santa Paula West MHP
• HOA & community: Park land lease of $940 per month; Community features include biking paths, sidewalks, and a park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Park has designated parking
• Utilities: Public water (district); Sewer/septic status unknown
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home — approximately 24 x 60
• Construction: Year built information provided by seller
• Exterior features: No fencing; Sprinklers: none; Estimated lot and living area measurements; Mobile home remains on site; Has a view; Close to the freeway; Located in Santa Paula West MHP (park community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Includes heating; Has an indoor pool; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $279,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$455,040) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.9% in Santa Paula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#331 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-, commute B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,162/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1317% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $280k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.63%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $455,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15433 W Telegraph Rd #54	0.11mi	3/—	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$290,000	$201	92
265 W Beckwith Rd #43a	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$270,500	$188	83
265 S Beckwith Rd #57	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	3mo	$265,000	$177	82
!265 Beckwith Rd Unit 63a	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$259,000	$180	77
15433 W Telegraph Rd #1	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$257,500	$179	76
975 W Telegraph Rd #38	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$440,000	$327	66
975 W Telegraph Rd #87	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	10mo	$562,500	$366	64
975 W Telegraph Rd #126	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (+10%)	7mo	$589,000	$370	60
265 Beckwith Rd Unit 34A	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+8%)	12mo	$247,000	$158	59
975 W Telegraph Rd #110	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	23mo	$485,000	$316	58
975 W Telegraph Rd Unit C81	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$470,000	$350	54
975 W Telegraph Rd #81	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$470,000	$350	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,417
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $38,210
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93060

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $757	-5% $660	+0% $564	+5% $467	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $439	+0% $564	+5% $688	+10% $813
Rate	-1.0pp $704	-0.5pp $635	base $564	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 Princeton St Santa Paula, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,600	$3.01	44d	1	0.87mi
325 Princeton St Santa Paula, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,600	$3.01	2d	1	0.87mi
200 W Main St Apt 7 Santa Paula, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,175	$2.42	19d	1	1.32mi
126 E Ventura St Unit F Santa Paula, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$2,350	$2.64	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    historical $279,900
16. 2026-05-07
    historical
17. 2026-02-13
    price $299,999
18. 2025-12-29
    listed $319,900 Active
19. 2025-12-27
    historical
20. 2012-06-29
    soldstatus $21,000 Closed 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

21. 2012-06-01
    status Pending 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

22. 2012-04-30
    status Backup Offers Accepted 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

23. 2012-04-12
    price $29,900 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

24. 2012-02-10
    listed $38,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Very attractive, well maintained home with open floor plan in this family park on the edge of town. The light color of the interior and the wood flooring in the living and dining room give this home a contemporary look. The family room has a skylight which brightens the whole home. Each bedroom has an attached bath so. .. .. .. .. two master bedrooms. The bedrooms are very big and each have ample closet space. Washer, dryer and refrigerator are included in the sale too. A big front porch and an attached sunroom off the family room make this a very versatile home just waiting for you. Space rent runs $700 per month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,035
• − Management: −$3,035
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable income: $2,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$588
• After-tax cash flow: $6,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and landscaping to become move-in ready and significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and wear
• Major roof — Aged appearance
• Major flooring — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major interior walls/paint — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major windows — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Likely outdated and in poor condition
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping, likely outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding and roof replacement — Significant increase in curb appeal and value
• Both flooring and interior paint — Significant increase in interior aesthetics and value
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Significant increase in comfort and value
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Significant increase in curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Likely outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Likely outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Likely outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Likely outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · No visible landscaping, likely outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding and roof replacement — Significant increase in curb appeal and value ↑
• Both flooring and interior paint — Significant increase in interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Significant increase in comfort and value ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Significant increase in curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Santa Paula

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #11320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Paula, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 34,501
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,501
• Household income: $80,979
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1317.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% White 18% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -942.94%
• Current HPI: 333.9105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+636.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $279,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $299,999 CRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $319,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-27 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2012-06-29 Sold (MLS) $21,000 CRMLS
• 2012-06-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-04-30 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-04-12 Price Changed $29,900 CRMLS
• 2012-02-10 Listed $38,000 CRMLS