3775 Ferdinand Dr

Rubicon, MI 48468

$135,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-281/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-281/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Huron School District (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #502 of 760 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Huron County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.