3775 Ferdinand Dr · Rubicon, MI 48468

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

0.25 ac lot $120/sqft · 26% below area Est $170k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

Key facts

• Deeded beach access
• Lake views
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• DEEDED BEACH ACCESS
• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single-family
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (financial details available but not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Rubicon Beach 1

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway, no garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Beach access and lake privileges on Lake Huron; Paved road; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 150 (0.25 acres)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Wood heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Furnished negotiable; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-281/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Huron School District (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #502 of 760 in MI (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Huron County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,094 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,763
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -20.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $29,020
• Equity at exit: $75,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $89,182
• Equity at exit: $130,568

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48468

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $130,862

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $15	+0% $-23	+5% $-62	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-63	+0% $-23	+5% $16	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $11	base $-23	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $135,000 Pending 33 DOM

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

16. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

17. 2026-05-13
    listed $135,000 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

18. 2026-05-13
    listed $135,000 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Charming full furnished knotty pine 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom lake access home offering 1,050 sq ft of comfortable living space with deeded beach access moments away. Lake views from the comfort of your own living room. Enjoy a functional layout with the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. This home offers comfortable living, a serene yard, and a great location. Ideal as a short term rental with proven potential or as a weekend retreat. Don't miss your chance to enjoy lake life this season!

19. 2023-07-03
    soldstatus $107,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

20. 2023-07-03
    soldstatus $107,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

21. 2023-05-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

22. 2023-05-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

23. 2023-04-18
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

24. 2023-04-18
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

25. 2023-04-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

26. 2023-04-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

27. 2023-04-01
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

28. 2023-04-01
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Beautiful Lake access home, just steps away from deeded sandy beach easement. House has been updated through out, with newer roof, electrical and natural gas line. One step into the house you feel like your on vacation with the knotty pine through out and the beautiful lake views from your windows. Don't hesitate, make an appointment today before it's gone. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 155.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Huron School District
• NCES district ID: 2625780
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $39,222
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #11659
• State rank: #502 of 760 in MI

Livability — Rubicon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,324

Population outlook (Huron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,325 people
• By 2030: 27,810 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 24,571 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 21,573 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 16,120 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 11,097 · -62.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.2pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 192.1558
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+12.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-03 Sold (MLS) $107,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-03 Sold (MLS) $107,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-05-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-05-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-18 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-18 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-04-01 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-04-01 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · -74.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.