402 Hatcher Dr

Bonifay, FL 32425

$82,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $343/mo
• Annual: $4,112/yr
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.91%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holmes (rural): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #53 of 73 in FL (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Holmes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Holmes County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.8% in Bonifay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.