1331 Vineland Path

Shoreham, MI 49085

$269,900C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,049 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $62/mo
• Annual: $742/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($742/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.3% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#234 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• St. Joseph Public Schools (suburban): math 53% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #47 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brown School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #160 of 1,397 statewide, top 13%, 398 students, 31% FRL); Upton Middle School (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B+, #51 of 493 statewide, top 11%, 665 students, 30% FRL); St Joseph High School (math 52% / reading 69%, grade C+, #70 of 713 statewide, top 10%, 988 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.