730 Ticky Fork Rd

Ravenna, KY 40472

$125,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,517/yr
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.2% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $118k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Estill County (rural): math 19% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #146 of 165 in KY (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Estill Springs Elementary (465 students, 70% FRL); Estill County Middle School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 70% FRL); Estill County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 644 students, 61% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.
• Estill County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $89k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.