730 Ticky Fork Rd · Ravenna, KY 40472

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1989 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Auction Cancelled Under Contract. Peaceful country living awaits in Ravenna! This three-bedroom, two-bath manufactured home offers the perfect blend of comfort and space, featuring a scenic private pond on about 3 acres. Enjoy warm summer days with an above-ground pool and take advantage of the detached garage for additional storage or workspace. This property delivers the privacy and tranquility of country life while still being within reach of nearby conveniences. The Real Estate will be sold Onsite and Online. The contents will be sold Onsite only. We will be selling by the deed. Sale terms: If you bid online you must submit a letter of good standing from your bank at least 24 hours prio

Key facts

• Country living
• Private pond
• Above-ground pool

Tags

• PRIVATE POND
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Property has a garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: One-level home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Foundation: Other; Total building area: 1,568
• Exterior features: Above-ground pool; Property on waterfront (water body: Other)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (type: Other); Cooling present (type: Other)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Estill County (rural): math 19% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #146 of 165 in KY (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Estill Springs Elementary (465 students, 70% FRL); Estill County Middle School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 70% FRL); Estill County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 644 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Estill County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $89k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,445 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,596
• Equity at exit: $23,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,787
• Equity at exit: $19,447

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40472

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $125,000 Active 814-char remark
2. 2005-07-01
   soldstatus $89,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 154.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $1,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estill County
• NCES district ID: 2101760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $29,324
• Composite: 20.86/100
• National rank: #8498
• State rank: #146 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ravenna

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #10283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,398

Population outlook (Estill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,588 people
• By 2030: 13,086 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 12,012 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 10,928 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 8,646 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 6,689 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Estill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.7% · R 81.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.13%
• Current HPI: 207.4411
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+40.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,200 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.