4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,586 sqft ·
Built 2002
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,383/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$445
Tax + insurance
−$121
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$527/mo
Annual
$6,323/yr
Cap rate
13.74%
Cash-on-cash
26.60%
DSCR
2.18
1% rule
1.63%
Cash to close
$23,772
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $70k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,383/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 693% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2DF1YE17271PBP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29