2817 Valley Crest Rd Rd

Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$199,500F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,353/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-365/mo
• Annual: $-4,380/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eastwood Middle School (math 3% / reading 31%, grade F, #201 of 257 statewide, top 79%, 758 students, 78% FRL); Paul W Bryant High School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,042 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa City average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?