2817 Valley Crest Rd Rd · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$199,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1970 0.40 ac lot $145/sqft · 32% above area Est $225k · 11% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Main floor has 3 bedrooms 2 bath and enjoy your sunroom, large family room, open kitchen with open dining. plus, in basement 1 bath with kitchenet, living space and large office sold as is, Large fenced in back yard. More pictures coming soon Call today

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eastwood Middle School (math 3% / reading 31%, grade F, #201 of 257 statewide, top 79%, 758 students, 78% FRL); Paul W Bryant High School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #276 of 305 statewide, top 95%, 1,042 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 11% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa City average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,342 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,865
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -11.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2837 Valley Crest RD Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-0%)	10mo	$182,000	$133	85
2801 Valley Crest Rd	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,471 (+7%)	6mo	$207,000	$141	72
3337 Willow Ridge Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+4%)	1mo	$212,500	$150	70
3323 Willow Ridge Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-4%)	1mo	$211,500	$161	69
141 Circlewood	0.30mi	3/3.0	1,475 (+8%)	0mo	$225,000	$153	65
3413 Willow Ridge Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+1%)	10mo	$215,000	$155	64
2619 Willow Ridge Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+4%)	9mo	$235,000	$165	62
2488 Valley View Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+13%)	12mo	$250,000	$161	60
3414 32nd Ave E	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+4%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	52
2726 Loop Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,175 (-14%)	4mo	$200,000	$170	46
1816 24th Ave E	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,228 (-10%)	12mo	$180,000	$147	38
2915 Shannon Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-14%)	12mo	$150,000	$128	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-52,148
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-60,572
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,992/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $146,678

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-296	+0% $-365	+5% $-434	+10% $-503
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-418	+0% $-365	+5% $-312	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-265	-0.5pp $-314	base $-365	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2837 Valley Crest Rd Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0	1369	$550	$0.40	45d	1	0.06mi
123 Circlewood Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,150	$0.92	45d	1	0.30mi
1800 Hargrove East Rd Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	15d	1	0.59mi
2501 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	46d	1	0.91mi
2501 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	2.0	1078	$975	$0.90	15d	1	0.91mi
1515 Kicker Rd Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,025	$0.98	45d	1	1.02mi
3719 Hargrove Rd E Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,150	$0.88	23d	1	1.07mi
3218 Veterans Memorial Pkwy Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	3.0–3.5	1484	$1,950	$1.31	23d	1	1.12mi
3504 12th Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0–1.5	1019	$1,037	$1.02	45d	10	1.16mi
4325 Henry Rd Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,795	$1.24	15d	1	1.17mi
2400 Sky Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1504	$1,695	$1.13	15d	1	1.23mi
4527 18th Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,249	$1.42	45d	6	1.29mi
1722 13th St E Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	1.32mi
713 33rd St E Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	2.0	1036	$815	$0.79	45d	1	1.37mi
1010 23rd Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.39mi
621 E 33rd St Unit D Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0	1.0	1000	$925	$0.93	45d	1	1.42mi
4801 Cypress Creek Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	889	$1,009	$1.13	15d	9	1.44mi
2201 48th St E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,345	$1.51	15d	21	1.46mi
1305 12th St E Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1377	$1,615	$1.17	23d	1	1.46mi
936 22nd Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,000	$2.21	15d	4	1.48mi
933 21st Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,150	$2.37	45d	2	1.49mi
922 23rd Ave E Tuscaloosa, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$2,300	$2.11	15d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-04-14
   price $199,500 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Main floor has 3 bedrooms 2 bath and enjoy your sunroom, large family room, open kitchen with open dining. plus, in basement 1 bath with kitchenet, living space and large office sold as is, Large fenced in back yard. More pictures coming soon Call today

3. 2026-03-30
   price $205,800 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Main floor has 3 bedrooms 2 bath and enjoy your sunroom, large family room, open kitchen with open dining. plus, in basement 1 bath with kitchenet, living space and large office sold as is, Large fenced in back yard. More pictures coming soon Call today

4. 2026-02-02
   listed $205,900 Active 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   Main floor has 3 bedrooms 2 bath and enjoy your sunroom, large family room, open kitchen with open dining. plus, in basement 1 bath with kitchenet, living space and large office sold as is, Large fenced in back yard. More pictures coming soon Call today

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$2,992
• − Insurance: −$1,664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$7,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,918
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa City
• NCES district ID: 0103360
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,474
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7647
• State rank: #74 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tuscaloosa, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $199,500 WAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $205,800 WAMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $205,900 WAMLS