2575 S Willow Ave #167

Fresno, CA 93725

$127,700F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$670
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$800
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,491/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $35,756

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (14.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $883 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edith B. Storey Elementary (564 students, 80% FRL); Elizabeth Terronez Middle (638 students, 89% FRL); Sunnyside High (math 13% / reading 47%, grade F, #715 of 1,170 statewide, top 62%, 2,879 students, 90% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?