2575 S Willow Ave #167 · Fresno, CA 93725

$127,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 142 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $108k · 19% over $800/mo HOA · 41% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a manufactured home built by Fleetwood - Canyon Lake. It was built in 2020 and has central heating and air. It is 54' long and 11'8'' wide. It is a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom and is 1,296 square feet. Upon entry, you walk into a grand room which includes a living room, dining area and large kitchen, including a kitchen island. The living room and all three bedrooms are carpeted, while the common areas of the home and bathrooms are linoleum flooring. The kitchen includes a refrigerator, oven/stove, and dishwasher. The kitchen is spacious with an abundance of upper and lower cabinets. The primary bedroom has a walk-in closet as well as an in-suite bathroom, including a double sink, bathtub

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Double sink
• In-suite bathroom

Tags

• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• IN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE SINK
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (14.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edith B. Storey Elementary (564 students, 80% FRL); Elizabeth Terronez Middle (638 students, 89% FRL); Sunnyside High (math 13% / reading 47%, grade F, #715 of 1,170 statewide, top 62%, 2,879 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $883 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,721 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2575 S Willow #140	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	95
2575 S Willow Ave #164	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-4%)	1mo	$147,000	$118	92
2575 S Willow Ave #13	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$104	84
2575 S Willow Ave #165	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	12mo	$42,000	$35	73
2575 S Willow Ave #137	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	0mo	$116,000	$81	72
2575 S Willow Ave #44	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	4mo	$122,000	$84	72
2575 S Willow Ave #156	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	70
2575 S Willow Ave #98	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	9mo	$90,000	$63	69
2575 S Willow Ave #229	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	7mo	$120,000	$83	67
2575 S Willow Ave #46	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	11mo	$100,000	$69	63
2575 S Willow Ave #46	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+11%)	11mo	$100,000	$69	63
2575 S Willow Ave #183	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+15%)	11mo	$50,000	$34	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-28,085
• Equity at exit: $19,040

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-32,527
• Equity at exit: $11,041

Cash invested: $35,756 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93725

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$670
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$160 /mo · $1,916/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $109,721

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-80	+0% $-124	+5% $-168	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-202	+0% $-124	+5% $-46	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-92	base $-124	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,925
• Closing costs: $3,831
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1344 S Bailey Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,500	$1.65	2d	1	1.29mi
4760 E Butler Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,320	$1.35	2d	9	1.37mi
5218 E Lowe Ave Apt 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	2d	1	1.43mi
1192 S Orangewood Dr Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1580	$2,345	$1.48	2d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-22
   listed $127,700 Active
3. 2025-06-03
   price $137,700
4. 2025-03-07
   price $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,916
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,715
• Taxable loss: −$3,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$753
• After-tax cash flow: $-737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 25,520

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% White 12% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 62%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 48% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.96%
• Current HPI: 423.3321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $127,700 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $137,700 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $149,900 FRESNOMLS