518 E Spruce St

Rawlins, WY 82301

$85,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$450
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $367/mo
• Annual: $4,406/yr
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.32%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $24,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#31 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Carbon County School District #1 (town): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #35 of 41 in WY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 40 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.1% in Rawlins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.