756 Ocean Pkwy

Ocean Pines, MD 21811

$405,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,054 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,103/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$447
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-192/mo
• Annual: $-2,304/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#172 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Showell Elementary (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #220 of 860 statewide, top 26%, 621 students, 37% FRL); Stephen Decatur Middle (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #53 of 225 statewide, top 24%, 697 students, 50% FRL); Stephen Decatur High (math 64% / reading 78%, grade B+, #37 of 222 statewide, top 17%, 1,431 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $256k; list at $405k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Ocean Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?