4141 Deep Creek Rd #169

Fremont, CA 94555

$250,000A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$786
• Net cashflow: $1,231/mo
• Annual: $14,770/yr
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ardenwood Elementary (778 students, 14% FRL); Thornton Junior High (1,302 students, 17% FRL); American High (math 82% / reading 90%, grade A, #25 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 2,501 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $250k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.