4141 Deep Creek Rd #169 · Fremont, CA 94555

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $283k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the spacious 2 bedroom, 2bath, 1728 sqft. immaculately clean home. Separate living and family room. Kitchen offers self cleaning oven. The home has separate laundry room.The masterbath invites you to a relaxing time in a huge bath tub. Deck and Patio to be accepted in "as is" condition.

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Sliding glass door
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• VAULTED CEILING
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: BESARO MHP; Clubhouse; Community pool and spa; Senior community; Pets allowed with number and size limits and upon approval

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Triple wide; Premiere model
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard; Partial fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast nook; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Gas range/cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower and jetted tub; Other bathroom with jetted tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Dining area; Family room; Double-pane windows; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Cabinets for storage; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ardenwood Elementary (778 students, 14% FRL); Thornton Junior High (1,302 students, 17% FRL); American High (math 82% / reading 90%, grade A, #25 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 2,501 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $250k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $246,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,392
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4141 Deep Creek Rd #116	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,686 (-2%)	14mo	$340,000	$202	80
4141 Deep Creek Rd. #53 #53	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-3%)	19mo	$220,000	$131	76
4141 Deep Creek Rd. #162 #162	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,697 (-2%)	21mo	$205,000	$121	74
4141 Deep Creek Rd #202	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,940 (+12%)	14mo	$289,000	$149	68
4141 Deep Creek Rd #176	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-11%)	18mo	$252,000	$164	61
289 Maui Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (-11%)	12mo	$432,500	$281	38
174 Kona Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-11%)	12mo	$428,000	$279	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $38,733
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $138,170
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94555

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$786
• Net cashflow: $1,231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,317	+0% $1,231	+5% $1,144	+10% $1,058
Rent	-10% $935	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,231	+5% $1,379	+10% $1,527
Rate	-1.0pp $1,357	-0.5pp $1,294	base $1,231	+0.5pp $1,166	+1.0pp $1,100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	19d	1	0.40mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	16d	1	0.46mi
4806 Balthazar Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.0	1755	$4,250	$2.42	0d	1	0.77mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	45d	1	0.83mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	26d	1	0.87mi
4132 Jamaica Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1166	$2,890	$2.48	0d	1	0.96mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	22d	1	1.01mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	26d	1	1.04mi
4910 Lowry Rd Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1129	$3,500	$3.10	45d	1	1.10mi
34141 Gannon Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1324	$4,000	$3.02	0d	1	1.18mi
4739 Louise Ln Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$4,000	$3.03	45d	1	1.21mi
34132 Spezia Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1481	$3,900	$2.63	20d	1	1.24mi
34897 Busby Way Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1950	$5,000	$2.56	19d	1	1.26mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	19d	1	1.30mi
34130 Lugano Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1701	$3,800	$2.23	45d	1	1.31mi
5764 Via Lugano Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1617	$4,100	$2.54	3d	1	1.38mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	4d	1	1.43mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	3d	1	1.46mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,595
• − Management: −$3,595
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $11,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,754
• After-tax cash flow: $12,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,501
• Household income: $219,938
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 73% White 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Armenian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 53% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Chinese 19% Other Indo-European 18% Other Asian/Pacific 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1033.77%
• Current HPI: 366.987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $250,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-09-18 Sold (MLS) $123,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-07-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-06-14 Listed $123,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-07-22 Sold (MLS) $122,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-06-03 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-05-13 Listed $129,995 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.