905 Dublin Run Rd

Aurora, NC 27806

$70,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $371/mo
• Annual: $4,450/yr
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.77%
• DSCR: 2.19
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#481 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaufort County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #112 of 178 in NC (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S W Snowden Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 190 students, 98% FRL); Southside High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 422 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Beaufort County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.