905 Dublin Run Rd · Aurora, NC 27806

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,425 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1971 0.58 ac lot Est $70k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! Come check out this brick exterior home with large attached carport. Located in a rural setting, this property offers half acre of land with fenced back yard that would be great for pets or gardening. Bring your vision to reality and make this your home today. Call our office to schedule your personal showing.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Fenced back yard
• Half acre of land

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• LARGE ATTACHED CARPORT
• HALF ACRE OF LAND
• FENCED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RR
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-space carport; On-site concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; City street and state road frontage; Has a view; Lot features: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Cooling system present (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#481 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Beaufort County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #112 of 178 in NC (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: S W Snowden Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 190 students, 98% FRL); Southside High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 422 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 216 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Beaufort County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.77%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,825
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
905 Dublin Run Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,425 (0%)	0mo	$70,000	$49	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $12,814
• Equity at exit: $10,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $42,214
• Equity at exit: $6,936

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27806

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $70,000
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $80,000 Active
4. 2020-12-11
   soldstatus $80,000
5. 2019-09-30
   soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$863
• After-tax cash flow: $3,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaufort County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700330
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,486
• Composite: 33.99/100
• National rank: #5320
• State rank: #112 of 178 in NC

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #17559

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,199

Population outlook (Beaufort County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,069 people
• By 2030: 46,417 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 44,455 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 42,239 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 37,349 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 32,434 · -31.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 43% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaufort

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.3 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.84%
• Current HPI: 185.7402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $70,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $80,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2019-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,023 · +55.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.