444 Creekbed Cir

Salisbury, MD 21804

$250,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 2018 · Townhouse · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-272/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-272/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#351 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wicomico County Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #19 of 24 in MD (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Salisbury Elementary (math 6% / reading 8%, grade F, #726 of 860 statewide, top 86%, 421 students, 70% FRL); Wicomico Middle (math 3% / reading 22%, grade F, #200 of 225 statewide, top 89%, 819 students, 68% FRL); Wicomico High (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #138 of 222 statewide, top 63%, 1,325 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Wicomico County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wicomico County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $161k; list at $250k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Salisbury — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.