63 Grace St

San Francisco, CA 94103

$379,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 555 sqft · Built 1911 · Condo · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,935/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$510
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-86/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-86/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (0.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $379k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $378k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.5%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.