400 4th, Site 56 St

Estancia, NM 87016

$88,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax + insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $103/mo
• Annual: $1,233/yr
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $24,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($608 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#286 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Estancia Municipal Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #58 of 95 in NM (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP.
• Torrance County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.