400 4th, Site 56 St · Estancia, NM 87016

$88,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath singlewide manufactured home located in Estancia, NM, is in the Salt Mission Mobile Home & RV Park and is now available for sale. 21st Mortgage will finance or owner financing is available with 3% down ($2640 plus some closing cost). Land lease is $425/month, home is connected to City water and sewer, CNME provides power. The home is all electric, water and sewer are added to the monthly lot lease payment. Buyer to establish electric account. The home has fresh paint, a new dishwasher and new refrigerator. This is a nice clean home that is move-in ready.

Key facts

• Built 2017
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#286 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Estancia Municipal Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #58 of 95 in NM (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($608 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Torrance County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,080 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $19,765
• Equity at exit: $42,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $58,069
• Equity at exit: $67,491

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87016

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $133	+0% $103	+5% $72	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $67	+0% $103	+5% $138	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $125	base $103	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2025-12-10
    price $88,000
15. 2025-10-17
    listed $88,000 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    This 2-bedroom, 1-bath singlewide manufactured home located in Estancia, NM, is in the Salt Mission Mobile Home & RV Park and is now available for sale. 21st Mortgage will finance or owner financing is available with 3% down ($2640 plus some closing cost). Land lease is $425/month, home is connected to City water and sewer, CNME provides power. The home is all electric, water and sewer are added to the monthly lot lease payment. Buyer to establish electric account. The home has fresh paint, a new dishwasher and new refrigerator. This is a nice clean home that is move-in ready.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable loss: −$178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home in Estancia, NM, is in good condition with fresh paint and new appliances. Landscaping and exterior painting would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Painting exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estancia Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500930
• Math proficiency: 15% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 21.62/100
• National rank: #13611
• State rank: #58 of 95 in NM

Livability — Estancia

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #25736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estancia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,897

Population outlook (Torrance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,807 people
• By 2030: 12,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 11,214 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 9,802 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 7,634 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 5,637 · -59.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% German 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Torrance

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.1) · D 29.9% · R 68.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -38.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.1 2020: R+33.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Current HPI: 106.6014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $88,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $88,000 Southwest MLS