19 Blues Quarry Rd

Woodstock, NY 12498

$1,450,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,613 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax + insurance: −$2,417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,625
• Net cashflow: $-146/mo
• Annual: $-1,747/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $406,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.45M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.43M (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.25M (13.8% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.25M (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#205 in NY, #3,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $575k; list at $1.45M implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Woodstock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.