19 Blues Quarry Rd · Woodstock, NY 12498

$1,450,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,613 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition 17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This perfectly private retreat awaits you, a hundred miles from NYC, minutes from the village, and a million miles from your cares. Built by a sea captain, this modern “vessel” has a country barn house front, and a unique ship’s prow facing the forest. The home is graced with soaring spaces and rich timbers, on 17 wooded acres. The two-story great room is light-filled, with stone fireplace and lush forest views. The spacious country kitchen/dining area has beamed ceilings and expansive windows.

Key facts

• 17 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.45M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-146 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.43M (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.25M (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.25M (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Woodstock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#205 in NY, #3,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Saugerties Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #419 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $575k; list at $1.45M implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,250,000 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $841,386
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Baumgarten Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (-13%)	11mo	$735,000	$322	54
1807 Glasco Tpke	0.61mi	3/1.5	2,290 (-12%)	9mo	$737,000	$322	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-244,049
• Equity at exit: $216,200

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-223,690
• Equity at exit: $125,369

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12498

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,812 /mo · $21,750/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,625
• Net cashflow: $-146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,684

Max offer price $1,428,928

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 Meher Cir Woodstock, NY	4.0	3.0	2714	$12,500	$4.61	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,450,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $1,450,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $150,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$21,750
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,000
• − Management: −$12,000
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable loss: −$26,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,337
• After-tax cash flow: $4,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home offers a serene setting with modern amenities and a spacious layout, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce potential water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce potential water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saugerties Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,897
• Composite: 41.3/100
• National rank: #3515
• State rank: #419 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodstock

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #3176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment D Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodstock, NY
• City population: 4,530
• Population (ZIP): 4,530

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 8% Italian 7% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.28%
• Current HPI: 344.8651
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+145.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Coming Soon $1,450,000 HVCRMLS
• 2009-04-30 Sold (MLS) $575,000 HVCRMLS
• 2008-08-21 Listed $590,000 HVCRMLS