615 Brazey Rd

Monticello, GA 31064

$159,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $665/mo
• Annual: $7,985/yr
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.94%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $159k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.